Will it be Paris? And why?

Several people have asked me why I think Paris will leave tonight, and since I have several reasons, I thought it warranted a short post. In my opinion:

1) Because her style changes so much from week to week, it's harder to think of her as having one specific style/personality that fans would latch onto and root for. (upside: she can sing anything well!)

2) She is a very, very good singer who also has connections in the music business. Therefore she does not "need" to win in order to succeed (whereas some other contestants would).

3) There is potentially some genre overlap between her and Elliott. Being different genders helps, but they could still split a few votes.

4) She has been fairly consistent throughout the competition and got some positive compliments last night (especially from Simon on her last performance, which is what people remember more). Thus no need for "Save Paris!" votes. (Except for the fact that she was bottom 2 last week.)

5) In the previous 4 seasons, 100% of the contestants who have performed second during the Top 5 week have been voted off. I don't claim to know why that happened, but based purely on statistics, a boot from this position is expected.

6) From several sources that measure it, her lines were the least busy last night. This has also been a fairly accurate prediction of voting results, in as much as I've followed it this season.

In her favor is the fact that she's the only African-American remaining (and we've never had a top 4 without one). We'll see if that and strong performances are enough to help her overcome the negatives!